E Ratings update: League 1, 11 Mar 2018
Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.
The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.
The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.
Rochdale are an enigma this season – despite being in a relegation battle, the ratings model really likes them. Along with another relegation struggler – Bury, who have been improving significantly – they look to be turning a corner but have a lot of ground to make up.
Despite changing managers recently, Peterborough haven’t looked that bad this season and their leaky defence was already starting to improve before the decision to sack Grant McCann.
Predicting the rest of the season
Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
Blackburn now have a slight edge over Wigan in the title race, with Shrewsbury also keeping the pressure on in the automatic promotion race. Along with Rotherham, they look to have four of the top six spots sewn up, with Scunthorpe alone among the chasing pack in having a better than 50:50 chance of making the play-offs.
Rochdale are now tipped to avoid the drop, with their games in hand and strong ratings capable of propelling them upwards. MK Dons and Bury are still heavily tipped to be relegated despite the latter’s improved performances.