E Ratings update: League 1, 4 Apr 2018

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Wigan and Blackburn remain the favourites for automatic promotion despite Shrewsbury‘s win – Rovers won themselves while the Latics have games in hand. The play-off drama is still pretty intense, with five clubs almost inseparable in the battle for the lower two berths. Bury and Northampton both look set for League 2 football next season, while MK Dons‘ recent rally was halted by a home defeat. The scrap to avoid joining these three in the final bottom four looks set to continue for some time yet.

What’s still possible

I’ve also added in an updated version of my newest graphical template, where the probabilities above are superimposed onto bars showing what’s still mathematically possible for each club this season:

The top three are now all mathematically guaranteed at least a play-off finish, while 17 of the division’s 24 clubs are still technically capable of both promotion and relegation.