E Ratings update: Championship, 8 Apr 2018

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

A surely controversial call from the model is that it now ranks Fulham slightly more favourably than Wolves overall. The Cottagers’ dominant win at Sheffield Wednesday coupled with a flat Wolves performance at Cardiff was enough to see them switch places at the top of the rankings. Bristol City continue to drop after another poor attacking performance, while Leeds‘ defence has also been looking increasingly suspect in the second half of this season.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Wolves‘ win makes them pretty much certain to go up, and presents Fulham with the opportunity to overtake Cardiff and claim second place. Middlesbrough are best-placed to complete the play-off line-up but shouldn’t rule out a challenge from Millwall. There was a further twist in the relegation battle as Barnsley grabbed a win, leaving Bolton looking marginally more likely to complete the final bottom three and Birmingham – who dominated Burton but could only draw – not out of the woods yet.