What’s still possible: 8 April 2018

Here’s the weekly update of what’s still mathematically possible – and likely – this season. The way the graphics work is pretty straightforward – I just took the version I created a few years ago, which have a bar stretching between each club’s highest and lowest possible finishes, and nested a minimalist chart of my latest model predictions inside each bar. The latter was based on this rather neat visualisation I saw a few weeks ago.

If you want to check any of my calculations then there’s a really useful site – hasithappened.net – which automatically does something similar and there’s also a handy tool for each division that you can use to manually check what’s possible.

Premier League

It’s still mathematically possible for both Man Utd and Tottenham to win the title – although Liverpool can’t because they’ve played an extra game. Everyone from Burnley upwards can still qualify from the Champions League and everyone below them – from Leicester downwards – is still able to be relegated. Everyone except West Brom can still secure a top half finish.


Wolves are now mathematically assured of a top three finish, while Cardiff are the only other team guaranteed at least a play-off spot despite their dramatic defeat at the weekend. Anyone in the top seven – down as far as Millwall – can still technically secure automatic promotion however, with another seven teams – down to 14th-placed Ipswich – capable of going up via the play-offs. Everyone below the Tractor Bots can still be relegated, although the Championship is the only EFL division with no clubs still able to get either promoted or relegated.

League 1

The top three of Blackburn, Wigan and Shrewsbury are all now mathematically guaranteed at least a play-off place, although incredibly there are only five teams who are no longer capable of reaching the top six. There are still 10 clubs – everyone from Bristol Rovers down to Oldham who could still be either promoted or relegated with the right combination of results.

League 2

Accrington and Luton are now mathematically guaranteed a play-off place at worst, although both look incredibly likely to go up automatically. Everybody down to 9th-placed Swindon could still secure automatic promotion and a whopping 16 teams in total are still technically able to be promoted this season. Ywo of these – Stevenage and Yeovil – are also still capable of being relegated, with the Glovers one of eight teams who could end up at the bottom of the pile.