What’s still possible: 8 April 2018
Here’s the weekly update of what’s still mathematically possible – and likely – this season. The way the graphics work is pretty straightforward – I just took the version I created a few years ago, which have a bar stretching between each club’s highest and lowest possible finishes, and nested a minimalist chart of my latest model predictions inside each bar. The latter was based on this rather neat visualisation I saw a few weeks ago.
If you want to check any of my calculations then there’s a really useful site – hasithappened.net – which automatically does something similar and there’s also a handy tool for each division that you can use to manually check what’s possible.
It’s still mathematically possible for both Man Utd and Tottenham to win the title – although Liverpool can’t because they’ve played an extra game. Everyone from Burnley upwards can still qualify from the Champions League and everyone below them – from Leicester downwards – is still able to be relegated. Everyone except West Brom can still secure a top half finish.
Wolves are now mathematically assured of a top three finish, while Cardiff are the only other team guaranteed at least a play-off spot despite their dramatic defeat at the weekend. Anyone in the top seven – down as far as Millwall – can still technically secure automatic promotion however, with another seven teams – down to 14th-placed Ipswich – capable of going up via the play-offs. Everyone below the Tractor Bots can still be relegated, although the Championship is the only EFL division with no clubs still able to get either promoted or relegated.
The top three of Blackburn, Wigan and Shrewsbury are all now mathematically guaranteed at least a play-off place, although incredibly there are only five teams who are no longer capable of reaching the top six. There are still 10 clubs – everyone from Bristol Rovers down to Oldham who could still be either promoted or relegated with the right combination of results.
Accrington and Luton are now mathematically guaranteed a play-off place at worst, although both look incredibly likely to go up automatically. Everybody down to 9th-placed Swindon could still secure automatic promotion and a whopping 16 teams in total are still technically able to be promoted this season. Ywo of these – Stevenage and Yeovil – are also still capable of being relegated, with the Glovers one of eight teams who could end up at the bottom of the pile.