E Ratings update: League 2, 14 Apr 2018

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Exeter‘s performance in holding leaders Accrington continues their timely surge, while former play-off dark horses Colchester continued to fall away after a frustrating afternoon against Notts County. Disappointing showings from Yeovil and Grimsby leave them languishing at the bottom of the ratings table, although both look capable of retaining their EFL status.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The current top three seem all but certain to remain their for the rest of the season, with Wycombe taking another step closer to automatic promotion after a win at Yeovil. The play-off race also looks to be coming to a head, with Mansfield‘s unconvincing victory at Chesterfield keeping them in the hunt. At the bottom, Grimsby‘s draw with Barnet means that the current bottom two have it all to do, but the Mariners aren’t safe yet.