E Ratings update: Championship, 22 Apr 2018
Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.
The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.
The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.
Aston Villa‘s convincing win this weekend continued their timely late surge, but as we’ll see below it looks too late for them to snatch automatic promotion. One of their potential play-off opponents Derby are in something of a tailspin at the moment, which as we’ll see below could cost them a top six spot altogether. While Reading look to have done enough to avoid the drop under Paul Clement, their performances have continued to slide and there will probably be some serious rethinking done over the summer.
Predicting the rest of the season
Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
Cardiff‘s win in the late kick-off maintained their advantage over Fulham: one of the two will have to settle for a place in the play-offs. The lower end of the promotion race is similarly open after another Derby slip: three other teams can still edge ahead of the Rams, but time is running out. In a crazy afternoon at the bottom of the table, Burton‘s late win gives them hope but they still look pretty likely to join one of Bolton and Barnsley in the final bottom three.