E Ratings update: League 2, 22 Apr 2018

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

While Luton have been the standout performers this season, Accrington are finishing strongly. They may have taken a huge step towards survival, but some serious work needs doing at Grimsby, who have the lowest rating of all at the moment. Yeovil and Morecambe also look to be in worse shape than either of the bottom two, so next season could be a slog if things don’t improve.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Wycombe remain favourites to claim the remaining automatic promotion place despite their setback against Accrington. The play-off race looks all but settled now: Mansfield‘s win keeps their relatively slim hopes of catching either Lincoln or Coventry alive. At the bottom a convincing win for Barnet didn’t do much for their survival chances given that several of the teams above them also won. It’s not over yet, but the Bees need a lot of luck.