E Ratings update: Championship, 17 Feb 2019

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Leeds and Sheffield United remain the top two sides in the division and their ratings don’t look to have plateaued yet. A resurgent Brentford are once again troubling the top end of the rankings although their mid-season meltdown has surely cost them a shot at promotion. At the bottom Rotherham‘s recent performances have seen them start to pull away from the bottom three, all of whom unfortunately look to be far worse than the rest of the division.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The automatic promotion race is still far from settled, with not much separating the top three and West Brom still not out of the race after their win at Villa. It looks like one of Derby and Bristol City won’t make the play-offs but it’s very difficult to predict which it will be. At the bottom there’s virtually no hope for Ipswich while Bolton also seem to be all but down. Reading and Rotherham are locked in a scrap to avoid joining them in League 1 next season.