E Ratings update: Premier League, 10 Mar 2019

Here is the latest update of the E Ratings and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results.

The attack rating broadly equates to how many goals’ worth of chances a team would create against an average opponent (so higher is better), with the defence rating equivalent to the chances they’d be expected to allow (so lower is better). The overall rating is the difference between the two – effectively the average expected goal difference per match – so a positive number is good and a negative one is bad.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – has changed over the past 30 league matches. The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Man City and Liverpool have been ahead of the rest this season, with both rated comfortably a goal per game better than their opponents. Despite sitting sixth in the league table, the model still rates Chelsea as the third-best side overall. Crystal Palace look to be underperforming this season as the model has them as the eighth best side, with their defence particularly impressive. Burnley have definitely been improving lately and their attack in particular has looked pretty respectable.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Man City look to have the edge in the title race while the two North London clubs are the likeliest to complete the final top four. At the other end of the table it looks like the current bottom three are likely to stay there, with Fulham and Huddersfield already pretty doomed and Cardiff still in danger despite their win this weekend.

Averaging across all simulations, the title winner looks set to finish with 93 points compared to 90 for the runners-up. 75 points will probably be necessary for fourth place and 37 should be enough to secure survival.