Women’s World Cup probabilities, 8 June 2019

I’ve updated my World Cup probability graphics (explained here) following today’s matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against.

How the knockout stages could pan out

This has been split into two graphics to stop if from getting too cramped. First of all, here’s how the Round of 16 probabilities look:

Unsurprisingly those wins for France and Germany have made them heavy favourites to top their respective groups. Here’s how things look from the quarter-finals onward:

A France v Germany final became slightly more likely as both delivered in their opening matches, and they’re each now more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals at least. If England perform as expected then they could be Norway’s opponents in the last eight.

Group A

First of all, here are the updated charts for all four of the Group A teams, who have now all played their first match. France already look nailed on to progress after their win yesterday and look to have around a 1-in-3 chance of going all the way to the final. Norway also won and looking overwhelmingly likely to join them in the Round of 16, possibly meeting the hosts for a second time if both sides reach the semi-final stage. South Korea’s respectable ranking gives them a decent chance of sneaking through despite losing their opening game, perhaps as one of the best-performing third placed teams.

Group B

Here are the same charts for the four Group B teams now that they’ve all played their opening match. Wins for Germany and Spain were expected and both should progress with ease, while China still have a good chance of going through to the Round of 16 despite their narrow loss to the Germans today. Their rating is fairly similar to Spain’s and far higher than South Africa’s, so there’s a strong chance that they’ll register at least one win.