Women’s World Cup probabilities, 9 June 2019

I’ve updated my World Cup probability graphics (explained here) following today’s matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against.

How the knockout stages could pan out

This has been split into two graphics to stop if from getting too cramped. First of all, here’s how the Round of 16 probabilities look:

Italy’s win means that they’re far more prominent now – either they or Brazil will probably top the group and get drawn against one of the third-placed teams, with the other likely to face Norway unless France slip up in Group A.

Here’s how things look from the quarter-finals onward:

A France v Germany final still looks to be the likeliest outcome but a lot depends on the USA’s fortunes, as their placing in Group F will determine which of these two they meet.

Group C

First of all, here are the updated charts for all four of the Group C teams, who have now all played their first match. Australia still look pretty likely to reach the Round of 16 despite losing to Italy, although they’ll probably have to get past either France or Norway to progress any further. The Italians are now marginally the likeliest side to top the group, although both they and Brazil will almost certainly qualify for the knockout stages. It’s not looking good for Jamaica though – they need a huge turnaround to extend their stay at the tournament.

Group D

We also had the first match from Group D in which England defeated Scotland – this keeps England’s chances of winning the tournament in double digits and leaves them almost certain to reach the knockout stages, although they’ll need to wait for a few other results before any likely opponents emerge. The Scots remain marginally likelier than not to reach the Round of 16, although some pretty tough sides would stand between them and further progression.