Expected goals league tables, 13-16 Sep 2019

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

Premier League

The two Manchester clubs have out-created every opponent they’ve faced so far but have dropped 12 points between them. Despite their poor start to the season it wasn’t that much of a surprise to see Watford frustrate Arsenal, given that their performances thus far have been far better than their league position suggests.


This has now been updated after Sunday’s two matches, with Leeds now top of the real league table in addition to a more convincing record in the expected one. Brentford, Fulham and Stoke are underachieving to an even greater extent, having lost nine games between them in which they weren’t significantly out-created. Both Swansea and Bristol City are defying the data, having racked up 10 more points apiece and sitting at the opposite end of the table to the one you’d expect if you judged their matches purely on the quality of chances created.

League 1

Another heavy and convincing defeat for Bolton suggests that we’ll have a negative points bar on here for some time yet. It looks like Oxford and Accrington have played well enough to be sitting significantly higher in the table, while MK Dons and Rochdale may have been a bit fortunate to be sitting in mid-table. Paul Tisdale’s side have won two games in which they were significantly out-created and a third where the expected goals totals were close.

League 2

Mansfield’s latest attempt to get promoted to League 1 isn’t going all that well, but the data suggests that they may have been a bit unfortunate so far. Forest Green remain very confusing, having 13 more points than the expected goals model would expect from their individual performances this season.