Expected goals league tables, 20-22 Sep 2019
Along with the two Manchester clubs, Everton haven’t been out-created by a significant margin in any of their league outings so far, although the Toffees have only dominated one of their six. Bournemouth’s back-to-back wins have lifted them up the real table but they’ve likewise only been in one contest where they’ve created the lion’s share of the chances. The ‘big two’ of Man City and Liverpool have both scored 6.5 goals more than the data would expect, but it’s hard to know how much of that may just be down to the superior quality of their attacks.
Another dominant Leeds performance ended in a draw this weekend, which means that they’re now seven points worse off than the xG data would expect. Brentford are underachieving on the same scale, with Fulham and Reading also sitting much lower than expected. Swansea and Bristol City – who played out a balanced 0-0 draw on Saturday – remain the biggest overachievers, having each racked up 10 more points than their numbers would suggest.
While neither Doncaster nor Ipswich have been meaningfully out-created in a match yet, Paul Lambert’s side are actually overachieving slightly thanks to winning a few games which were evenly balanced. Wimbledon are the division’s biggest underachievers, having dominated in three matches so far but not winning any, while Rochdale are perhaps fortunate not to be sitting in the relegation zone at the moment.
Grimsby have performed admirably this season: in fact they’ve yet to ‘lose’ a game on xG (at least by my measurements), so I won’t be surprised if they edge into the play-off places as the season wears on. While Crewe are another side who haven’t been meaningfully out-created yet this season, they’ve also won five more matches than xG suggests they should have – that implies that most of their games have been close-run affairs.