Expected goals league tables, 12-13 Oct 2019

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

League 1

Don’t be surprised if Accrington climb the table as the season progresses: Stanley have only won twice so far but there have been four other games where the data suggests they did enough to take all three points. Ipswich meanwhile have looked dominant overall but three of their eight wins so far came from matches where they didn’t meaningfully out-create their opponents.

League 2

Cambridge look as though they could easily be sitting higher in the table, having failed to win three games in which they created the better chances (at least as well as I can measure them). Forest Green continue to confound the model to a suspicious extent.