Weekly permutations: 25-28 Oct 2019
These graphics have the current league table on the left, a hollow colour-coded strip showing how far each team is mathematically capable of moving during the next round of fixtures and inside the strip is a little minimalist column chart showing the relative chance of them ending up in each position.
Arsenal playing Crystal Palace creates a ceiling for the teams below them this weekend: while fifth place appears to be in reach for Tottenham and the other four teams currently on 12 points, either the Gunners or Palace is guaranteed to have at least 16. While Man City could drop to fourth on paper, their ridiculous goal difference makes it incredibly unlikely. Neighbours Man Utd sliding into the bottom three could be achieved with fairly realistic results, although with Brighton playing Everton it would require a very specific combination of outcomes.
The top half remains congested with nine of the top 10 sides separated by just three points and therefore having a pretty wide range of motion. West Brom can stay above the fray and should remain in the top two whatever happens. Only one of Stoke or Barnsley can escape the bottom three this weekend, but given that it’d require Middlesbrough to lose at home and one of them recording a convincing away win, it’s far from guaranteed.
With goal difference separating the top three, it’s not surprising that they’re in a pretty wild mini-league of their own this weekend. While Coventry can theoretically go top this weekend, it’d require the top three to all lose and for the Sky Blues to achieve a 16-goal swing over Peterborough. The bottom of the table is a bit dull this week, with Wimbledon not playing and the two teams beneath them having a seven and 10-point gap above them respectively.
While Bradford and Newport are only three points behind Crewe, neither can snatch top spot this weekend because the leaders are facing third-placed Forest Green, guaranteeing that one of them will remain out of their reach. Mid-table is a massive free-for-all with only two points separating Northampton in 9th from Leyton Orient in 17th.