Expected goals league tables, 25-28 Oct 2019

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

Premier League

The data puts Man City at the top of the table, suggesting that they could have six more points by now while Liverpool could have three fewer. Bournemouth are worth keeping an eye on as a potential candidate to get sucked into the relegation battle: they only appear to have meaningfully out-created one of their first 10 opponents.


Leeds continue to outperform the rest to a pretty significant extent and are now 12 points behind where the data projects they should be. Stoke are the only team underachieving to a greater extent, but Bristol City’s actual and expected points totals are further apart still – albeit in the opposite direction.

League 1

This is a difficult division to read from a league table at the moment due to the wide spread in the number of games played. However it’s safe to say that Fleetwood are having a great season, with performances outstripping their already impressive results. Portsmouth and Accrington are underachieving to an even greater extent so I’d expect to see both climb the table as the season progresses.

League 2

The model is making the somewhat edgy suggestion that mid-table Cambridge could easily be top of the division, having dropped 11 points that their performances merited, while top side Crewe are being sent in the opposite direction. Forest Green continue to be the most confusing overachievers with Cheltenham also defying the data so far.