Expected goals league tables, 1-4 Nov 2019

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

Premier League

Southampton gave Man City a scare on Saturday, so perhaps their top half position here isn’t all that ridiculous despite their hammering last week. Brighton continue to impress and could easily be 5 points better off, while Man Utd are underachieving to an even greater extend despite their recent struggles. Everton are having a bit of a weird season: despite only dominating in 3 of their matches, they’ve only been meaningfully out-created once and therefore look unlucky not to have held on to more draws.


A win for Leeds keeps them at the top of a table they should be leading by a much wider margin, while fellow promotion challengers Nottingham Forest and Bristol City are setting off alarm bells in the model – as it stands I’d be surprised if both don’t drop out of the top six as the season progresses.

League 1

Despite a shock defeat to Bolton, Fleetwood are still the best performers in the division so far – at least according to the model. Portsmouth’s high position in these tables apparently drew the ire of some of their fans but this weekend they again appeared to dominate a match without being able to close out a win.

League 2

A win for Salford despite their opponents having the majority of the game’s chances means that they now join Forest Green on having 13 more points than the model would expect. Stevenage could only manage a draw at Scunthorpe despite creating the better chances, which now leaves them 10 points shy of the tally their efforts appear to have merited.