Weekly permutations: Premier League, 23-25 Nov 2019

These graphics break down how much the league table can change during the next round of fixtures as follows:

  • Down the left is the current order if league table, with each club’s current league position also indicated by a shaded square in their row.
  • Across each club’s row is a hollow colour-coded strip showing how they are mathematically capable of moving after the next round of fixtures is over, regardless of how crazy the combination of scorelines would need to be.
  • To differentiate between the probable and the possible, inside the strip is a little minimalist column chart showing the relative chance of them ending up in each position based on my ratings model.

With just three points separating the team in 5th from the team in 15th, mid-table could look completely different on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile both Liverpool and Man City enjoy an 8-point cushion between themselves and the team below them (although the Reds are obviously sitting more contentedly on theirs). While it’s mathematically possible for Aston Villa to be pulled into the relegation zone this weekend, it would take a hugely unlikely swing in goal difference for either Watford or Southampton to overtake them.