E Ratings update: Championship, 4 Mar 2020

Apologies are in order first of all as once again I took the ratings model apart over the summer and then struggled to find the time to put it back together again. It’s still not quite where I’d like it to be, but it shouldn’t be any worse than the version that ran last season.

Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The model doesn’t expect anyone to overhaul Leeds and West Brom in the automatic promotion places and it’s backing Leeds to edge the title race. This will come as no surprise to anyone who’s been following the scatter graphics or expected goals table where Leeds’ underlying numbers have shone. The final play-off place is the toughest to call, with Preston far from secure, while at the bottom the model is predicting Middlesbrough to avoid the drop at Charlton’s expense.