E Ratings update: League 2, 4 Mar 2020

Apologies are in order first of all as once again I took the ratings model apart over the summer and then struggled to find the time to put it back together again. It’s still not quite where I’d like it to be, but it shouldn’t be any worse than the version that ran last season.

Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Swindon look pretty nailed on to go up automatically, with 5th-placed Cheltenham considered likely to displace Exeter in the final top three. The last play-off place is still up for grabs, while Stevenage face an uphill struggle to escape relegation.