E Ratings update: Premier League, 4 Mar 2020
Apologies are in order first of all as once again I took the ratings model apart over the summer and then struggled to find the time to put it back together again. It’s still not quite where I’d like it to be, but it shouldn’t be any worse than the version that ran last season.
Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
The title is Liverpool’s to throw away and it would take some historically epic throwing away given that they have a 22-point lead. Despite their bumpy form, Chelsea are the likeliest to secure fourth place but they’re still very catch-able. At the bottom of the table there’s not a lot of hope for Norwich, with Aston Villa and Bournemouth also considered unlikely to escape the bottom three as it stands.