E Ratings update: Championship, 8 Mar 2020
Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
Leeds’ resurgence and a point for West Brom keeps the top two looking like an exclusive club despite Brentford’s hammering of Sheffield Wednesday. The last play-off place remains up for grabs with pretty much the whole top half in the running. Wins for Middlesbrough and Stoke moved both clubs towards safety at the expense of the clubs they beat: Charlton and Hull are now scrapping it out to stay clear of the bottom three.
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