E Ratings update: Championship, 11 Apr 2021
Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
Norwich look all but certain to secure an immediate return to the Premier League while Watford are in a strong position to do likewise. Bournemouth look likelier than not to make the play-offs so we could yet see all three of the clubs relegated from the top flight last season bounce straight back.
At the bottom it unfortunately looks like Wycombe won’t be extending their stay in the second tier, while Sheff Wed‘s points deduction makes their survival look like a tall order. The third relegation place is still to be decided, with Rotherham‘s games in hand giving them a decent shot at avoiding the drop.