E Ratings update: League 1, 11 Apr 2021
Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.
This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:
Hull and Peterborough appear to be in control in the automatic promotion race, with Sunderland running out of time to dislodge one of them. Only the final play-off place looks uncertain at present, with Lincoln‘s chances of securing it roughly 50:50.
The relegation battle looks like a ‘four from six’ situation with Wimbledon‘s big win at the weekend moving them towards safety but not fully out of danger. Rochdale have the toughest task ahead of them in the remaining weeks.