What’s still possible: Championship, 11 Apr 2021
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 5-9 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
Everyone currently in the play-off places remains capable of securing automatic promotion to the Premier League, while all of the current top 13 are still capable of finishing inside the play-offs.
Any of the current bottom nine – from Preston downwards – can still finish rock bottom, while everyone from 11th-placed QPR and lower is still in mathematical danger of relegation.
The current bottom two of Sheff Wed and Wycombe are the only teams now incapable of a top half finish, while none of the current top five can now end the campaign in the bottom half.
Nobody is yet certain of starting the next season in the same division, while there are three teams – QPR, Stoke and Luton – who can still be either promoted or relegated.