What’s still possible: League 1, 11 Apr 2021
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 5-8 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
The top two of Hull and Peterborough are the only teams mathematically guaranteed a top half finish, while five of the current bottom six (excluding Wimbledon who have games in hand) cannot now escape the bottom half.
Nine different teams are still technically in the title race and everyone in the top half except Gillingham can still secure automatic promotion, while everybody down to 18th-placed Burton is still capable of finishing in the play-offs.
Likewise there are still nine teams – everyone up to 16th-placed Plymouth – who can end the season at the foot of the table, and the bottom 11 teams can each still technically be relegated.
Nobody is yet mathematically certain of remaining in the division for next season, while five teams – everyone from MK Dons in 14th-place down to Burton in 18th – could still potentially be either promoted or relegated.