What’s still possible: League 2, 11 Apr 2021
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 5-7 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
Every club currently in the top half – down to Leyton Orient in 12th – is still mathematically capable of winning the league. Leaders Cheltenham are strong title favourites however and are the only club guaranteed to end the season in the top half of the table.
Apart from Oldham (who have too few games remaining), everyone down to Scunthorpe in 18th can still secure automatic promotion. Only four clubs – Mansfield and the current bottom three – can no longer be promoted and the latter are the only clubs now incapable of a top half finish.
The relegation picture is less wild: everyone from 16th-placed Oldham downwards is still technically in danger of dropping into the National League.
No clubs are yet mathematically guaranteed to be in the division next season while there are still five who can be either promoted or relegated: Oldham, Harrogate, Scunthorpe, Walsall and Barrow.