E Ratings update: Premier League, 12 Apr 2021

Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season will unfold. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average predicted league finish. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The title is Man City‘s to lose and Man Utd are almost certain of finishing inside the top four, but the rest of the Champions League and Europa League spots are still wide open.

At the bottom end of the table, the current bottom three look pretty likely to stay there: Fulham have the best chance of dragging either Burnley or Newcastle below them but time is running out to make that happen.