What’s still possible: Premier League, 12 Apr 2021
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 6-8 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
Man City are now guaranteed to finish in the top four, as while 5th-placed Chelsea can still overtake them they would have to defeat 4th-placed West Ham in the process, who would then not be able to get enough points from their other remaining games to do likewise.
Nobody else is even mathematically guaranteed a top half finish at this point, with everyone down to 14th-placed Southampton still capable of reaching the top four and (if I’ve understood the various scenarios correctly) only the three teams currently in the relegation zone can definitively rule out some sort of European football next season.
West Brom‘s game in hand means that only Fulham and Sheff Utd are incapable of ending the season in the top half as things stand.
Any of the current bottom six could still finish in last place, while everyone up to 9th-placed Arsenal can still be relegated.