What’s still possible: Championship, 15 Apr 2022
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 5-7 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
Leaders Fulham are the only team assured of a play-off place at this stage, with everyone down to 17th-placed Cardiff still mathematically in with a shot at promotion.
Nobody is still able to be either promoted or relegated however – the highest-ranked team still technically capable of starting next season in League 1 is Birmingham in 18th.
While only seven clubs can still be relegated, half the division can still be automatically promoted to the Premier League: the top 11 plus Swansea thanks to their game in hand.