What’s still possible: League 1, 15 Apr 2022
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.
The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.
The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.
Even with each team having just 4-5 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.
Any of the current top seven – down to Wycombe in 7th – can still be automatically promoted while the play-off places could be occupied by anyone from 11th-placed Bolton upwards.
Leaders Wigan are the only side assured of at least a play-off place.
16th-placed Shrewsbury – and everyone below them – are still mathematically capable of being relegated to League 2.