What’s still possible: Premier League, 15 Apr 2022

As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on.

The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen.

The latter is based on my expected goals model, which powers most of the stuff on the site.

Even with each team having just 6-9 matches left to play, surprisingly little can be definitively ruled out.

While it’s a two-horse race for the title, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal are all still mathematically capable of winning it.

Nobody is mathematically guaranteed Champions League football next season, with 13 different teams (the current top 12 and Southampton who have a game in hand over Brentford) still technically chasing a top four finish.

Everyone from 9th-placed Leicester downwards is still theoretically in relegation danger, with the Foxes one of five teams who could still finish in either the top four or the bottom three.

Things are so close in the lower reaches of the table that every single club could still finish the season in the top half if results went their way.