Women’s Euro probabilities, 11 Jul 2022

I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) following the first round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against.

I’ll do so again on Friday once the second round of matches is complete.

Group stage
Knockout stage