I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the final round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against.

Knockout stage

England, France and Germany are already guaranteed to win their groups but there’s still plenty of uncertainty about who they’ll face in the quarter-finals. In particular, the runner-up spots in Groups C and D appear to be wide open. There’s a good chance that we’ll see France and Germany meet in the semi-final, with hosts England the most likely opponent for the winner in the final.

Group stage