Women’s Euro probabilities, 19 Jul 2022

Now that the group stage is over, I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the knockouts – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against.

Knockout stage

We now know the identities of the quarter-finalists, rendering the top half of this graphic a bit bland, but it’s still interesting to see how they are likely to filter through to the latter stages. Sweden and Germany each face one of the two lowest-ranked teams remaining in their quarter-final ties so have a strong chance of reaching the semis. England’s home advantage gives them the edge over Spain while France versus the Netherlands is finely balanced.

With England likely to face the highly-ranked Swedes in the final four and with a tougher opponent beforehand, a Sweden v Germany final is now slightly more likely than the hosts meeting the tournament’s specialists.

Team graphics

The bottom halves of these graphics aren’t much use now, but the top half still summarises their chances of reaching each round and likely opponents. England remain narrow favourites overall, followed by Sweden and then Germany.