Predicting the 2022 World Cup, 25 Nov 2022

The plan

As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the first round of group games.

How the knockout stages could pan out

First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Argentina‘s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia leaves Brazil as the dominant favourites, with the Netherlands and Spain their likeliest challengers from a closely-knit pack. England‘s hammering of Iran has moved them up the pecking order to the point where their flag is at least visible now.

… and here’s how the Round of 16 fixtures are likely to be populated. The horizontal lines in the middle pair the matches up by which quarter-final game they feed into. As we can see down the left-hand side, all but one of the groups has a probable winner now, while Group C is wide open thanks to that Saudi Arabia win that now makes them narrow favourites.

Team-by-team graphics

Below I’ve created a graphic for each team (in alphabetical order) breaking out their prospects and likely opponents at each stage in detail. One slight quirk to be aware of is that the spread of possible opponents in the final for the lowest-ranked teams may be a bit off, as there are so few scenarios in which they get this far.