Predicting the 2022 World Cup, 29 Nov 2022
As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the second round of group games.
How the knockout stages could pan out
First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Brazil remain the standout favourites, with a final against either France or Portugal looking the likeliest outcome at the moment. Argentina, Spain and the Netherlands are also among the favourites (all with win probabilities in the 8-12% range), followed by a big drop-off to England.
… and here’s how the Round of 16 fixtures are likely to be populated. There are only four teams who have a 75% or greater chance of slotting into a specific berth: France are all but guaranteed to top Group D (barring a huge goal difference swing), while Brazil and Portugal (the only other teams with six points) will also be hard to dislodge. Spain are also likely to progress as Group E winners as even a draw with Japan would be enough provided Germany don’t lose to Costa Rica.
Below I’ve created a graphic for each team (in alphabetical order) breaking out their prospects and likely opponents at each stage in detail. One slight quirk to be aware of is that the spread of possible opponents in the final for the lowest-ranked teams may be a bit off, as there are so few scenarios in which they get this far. I’ve excluded the two already-eliminated teams – Canada and Qatar – as their graphics would be quite boring.