As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the second round of group games. How the knockout stages could pan out First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Brazil remain the standout favourites, with a final against either France or Portugal looking

The plan As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the first round of group games. How the knockout stages could pan out First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Argentina‘s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia leaves Brazil as the dominant favourites,

The plan During the 2018 World Cup I was messing about with a simple prediction model based on the Elo ratings (which I prefer to the official FIFA ones) and came up with graphics like this and this which people quite liked, so ever since then I’ve rolled them out for every major tournament. For every team there’s an individual

Now that the group stage is over, I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the knockouts – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. Knockout stage We now know the identities of the

I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the final round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. Knockout stage England, France and Germany are already guaranteed to win

I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) following the first round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. I’ll do so again on Friday once the second round of matches

The plan Since the 2018 men’s World Cup I’ve been generating compact graphics which summarise the prospects for each team at a major tournament and I’ve dusted them off again for the Women’s Euros. I’ll be aiming to update them after every round of matches, showing the revised prospects for the teams who just played and also how the latest

Ahead of the Round of 16, I’ve updated the Euro 2020 permutations graphics to see how things have changed (and also to give the team-by-team graphics another outing by popular demand). These are explained in full here. Team graphics Here are the probabilities for each of non-eliminated teams alphabetical order. Starting in the bottom half, we have their chances of

As the group stage ends today, I’ve updated the Euro 2020 permutations graphics to see how things have changed (and also to give the team-by-team graphics one final outing before they’re switched off). These are explained in full here. Team graphics Here are the probabilities for each of non-eliminated teams alphabetical order. Starting in the bottom half, we have their

As we’re in the thick of the final round of group games, I’ve updated the Euro 2020 permutations graphics to see how things have changed. These are explained in full here. Team graphics Here are the probabilities for each of non-eliminated teams alphabetical order. Starting in the bottom half, we have their chances of finishing in each position within their