## Euro 2020 permutations, 20 Jun 2021

As everyone’s now played twice, I’ve updated the Euro 2020 permutations graphics to see how things have changed. These are explained in full here. Team graphics Here are the probabilities for each of the 24 teams alphabetical order. Starting in the bottom half, we have their chances of finishing in each position within their group on the left and their

## Euro 2020 permutations, 16 Jun 2021

As everyone’s now played once, I’ve updated the Euro 2020 permutations graphics to see how things have changed. These are explained in full here. Team graphics Here are the probabilities for each of the 24 teams alphabetical order. Starting in the bottom half, we have their chances of finishing in each position within their group on the left and their

## Predicting Euro 2020

The plan During the 2018 World Cup I was messing about with a simple prediction model based on the Elo ratings and came up with graphics that people quite liked, so I ran then again for the Women’s World Cup the following year and will be giving them another run-out for the Euros. What I’ll be aiming to do throughout

## Women’s World Cup probabilities, 9 June 2019

I’ve updated my World Cup probability graphics (explained here) following today’s matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. How the knockout stages could pan out This has been split into two graphics to stop if

## Women’s World Cup probabilities: England v Scotland

I’ve created specific World Cup probability graphics (explained here) for England v Scotland today, as it’s probably one of the most pivotal games in the first round of group matches. Basically I ran the model with a 2-1 England win baked in, then again with a 2-1 Scotland win, and created the team-specific graphics to see how they differed. If

## Women’s World Cup probabilities, 8 June 2019

I’ve updated my World Cup probability graphics (explained here) following today’s matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. How the knockout stages could pan out This has been split into two graphics to stop if

## Predicting the Women’s World Cup

The plan During the 2018 World Cup I was messing about with a simple prediction model based on the Elo ratings and came up with graphics like this and this which people quite liked, so I thought I’d try it again for the Women’s World Cup this year. What I’ll be aiming to do throughout the tournament is create updated

## World Cup probabilities, 23 June 2018

I’ve created yet another variation on the World Cup probabilities graphics, this time to illustrate how forthcoming group matches can affect who qualifies for the round of 16. Then way these work is as follows: Using the predictive model I’ve built, powered by the latest World Football Elo Ratings, I’ve simulated the rest of the matches in each group 100,000 times.