Category Archives: League 1

Pre-season predictions: how did the model do?

Shortly after the regular EFL season had finished I compiled a set of club-by-club graphics which tracked how their league position changed over time compared with my model’s predictions. When doing so I noticed that even the pre-season predictions (made without any knowledge beyond last season’s performances) were surprisingly accurate, so I thought I’d try to work out how good they were. I didn’t

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Play-off previews: League 1, 4 May 2017

With the League 1 play-off semi-finals kicking off this evening, I thought I’d see what the E Ratings model made of them. If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they’re explained fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections: The current ratings (with ranks) of

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League 1 2016-17: stats dump

After last week’s onslaught of post-season League 1 graphics I realised there were still a lot of useful – but less obviously visual – stats that I hadn’t managed to work into anything I’d produced. I’m working on a couple of template designs to house some of the simpler stats next season so I thought I’d road-test one of them here by

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Model trends: League 1, 2016/17

With the regular League 1 season over, I thought that I should update the graphics which track my model predictions to see how each team performed relative to its predictions. Explanation The way it works is pretty simple: for pre-season and after every round of games it shows the results of my simulations for a specific club in terms of both:

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