Expected goals table: League 1, 20 Apr 2021
These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.
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League 1 timelines, 20 Apr 2021
Here are the individual timeline graphics for the latest round of matches, comparing the quality of chances created by each team with goals scored. There’s a full explanation of these here for anyone who’s not seen them before.
Read moreWeekly permutations: League 1, 20 Apr 2021
These graphics break down how much the league table can change during the next round of fixtures as follows: Down the left is the current order if league table, with each club’s current league position also indicated by a shaded square in their row. Across each club’s row is a hollow colour-coded strip showing how they are mathematically capable of
Read moreExpected goals table: League 1, 16-17 Apr 2021
These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.
Read moreLeague 1 timelines, 16-17 Apr 2021
Here are the individual timeline graphics for the latest round of matches, comparing the quality of chances created by each team with goals scored. There’s a full explanation of these here for anyone who’s not seen them before.
Read moreWeekly permutations: League 1, 16-17 Apr 2021
These graphics break down how much the league table can change during the next round of fixtures as follows: Down the left is the current order if league table, with each club’s current league position also indicated by a shaded square in their row. Across each club’s row is a hollow colour-coded strip showing how they are mathematically capable of
Read moreExpected goals table: League 1, 13 Apr 2021
These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.
Read moreLeague 1 timelines, 13 Apr 2021
Here are the individual timeline graphics for the latest round of matches, comparing the quality of chances created by each team with goals scored. There’s a full explanation of these here for anyone who’s not seen them before.
Read moreE Ratings update: League 1, 11 Apr 2021
Here is how the model predicts the rest of the season will pan out. The rating system is explained here, but in a nutshell it’s based on the combined quality of chances that clubs create and allow, rather than their results. I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the
Read moreWhat’s still possible: League 1, 11 Apr 2021
As the season approaches its conclusion I’ve switched these graphics back on. The way they work is pretty straightforward and it’s exactly the same idea as the weekly permutations: the outer bar shows what’s mathematically possible over the rest of the season while the inner chart is a distribution of what’s actually likely to happen. The latter is based on
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