Category Archives: National League

National League match timelines: 9 Apr 2016

Here are the match timeline graphics for each of the weekend’s National League matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each team’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from their shots) changed over the course of the match. You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.

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National League previews, 9 Apr 2016

Here are the preview graphics for the weekend’s National League fixtures. These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match, using high-level performance data. The graphic has

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National League permutations: 9 Apr 2016

Assuming there are no weather-induced postponements, here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each National League club can occupy after this weekend’s fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the last play-off spot, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference. If you want to quickly browse versions of this graphic for other divisions then

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Manager of the month: National League, March 2016

Here’s the third instalment in my attempt to “science up” the National League manager of the month awards with a data-driven version, where I compared each club’s achievements with what my E Ratings model had predicted, to measure which managers had overachieved the most. A quick explanation My model predicts how every match “should” turn out based on the attacking and defensive strengths of the

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Updated predictions, Championship & National League, 6 Apr 2016

There was a full set of Championship fixtures last night, plus a few pivotal matches in the National League, so I’ve re-run my end-of-season predictions model to factor these in. If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league position across 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The

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National League permutations: 1-2 Apr 2016

Here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each National League club can occupy after this weekend’s fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the last play-off spot, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference. If you want to quickly browse versions of this graphic for other divisions then you can select VISUALISATIONS > PERMUTATIONS from

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National League permutations: 28 Mar 2016

Assuming there are no weather-induced postponements, here are the highest and lowest possible positions that each National League club can occupy after the Easter Monday fixtures. I’ve drawn lines under the last play-off spot, mid-table and the last spot above the relegation zone on both “axes” for ease of reference. If you want to quickly browse versions of this graphic for other divisions

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