Category Archives: Predictions

How the midweek matches can affect the automatic promotion race: Championship & League 1, 19 Apr 2016

This evening there are pairs of potentially promotion-deciding fixtures in both the Championship and League 1, so I’ve run the possible scenarios through my E Ratings model to see what the impact of each would be. What I’ve done is to look at all nine different combinations of each of the two matches ending in a home win, a draw and

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Updated probabilities, 17 Apr 2016

I’ve re-run my E Ratings model after the weekend’s Football League and National League fixtures last night to see what effect they’ve had on where each club is predicted to finish at the end of the season. Obviously a few fates have already been decided, but there are plenty of clubs with something still to play for. If you’ve not seen these

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Updated probabilities, 13 Apr 2016

I’ve re-run my E Ratings model after the batch of midweek Football League and National League fixtures last night to see what effect they’ve had on where each club is predicted to end up at the end of the season. If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league

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E Ratings update: Championship, 9 Apr 2016

Here is the latest update to the E Ratings (explained here) for Championship and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out. The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. This is effectively

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Updated predictions, Championship & National League, 6 Apr 2016

There was a full set of Championship fixtures last night, plus a few pivotal matches in the National League, so I’ve re-run my end-of-season predictions model to factor these in. If you’ve not seen these graphics before, they show the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final league position across 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The

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