Championship previews, 23-25 Jan 2016

Here is the latest batch of preview graphics for the weekend’s Championship matches, released earlier than usual due to there being a Friday evening match.

These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

2016-01-23 Birmingham Ipswich

Ipswich’s superior performances this season – particularly in attack – look to have all but wiped out home advantage for Birmingham here, making this a tricky one to call. The Blues’ defence has been one of the division’s more resilient however and could frustrate their visitors.
2016-01-23 Bolton MK Dons

This is one of the best opportunities that Bolton will get to make a leap towards safety. MK Dons’ underlying performances have been at a similar level to theirs, although the visitors have been more fortunate in front of goal than the luckless Trotters and more convincing in defence.
2016-01-23 Brighton Huddersfield

If you followed the form book then Huddersfield would have a much better chance here, having lost only one of their last seven while Brighton have just secured their first win in eight, but the hosts’ ratings haven’t taken much of a dent nor their visitors’ soared. Huddersfield have struggled to deal with the shots they’ve faced this season which could offset Brighton’s own difficulties with converting their chances.
2016-01-23 Cardiff Rotherham

Both of these sides have looked fairly respectable going forward but more vulnerable at the back, although Cardiff’s resilience has kept the goal tally against them relatively low. Rotherham have made a far worse job of handling the fewer shots they’ve faced and their worse overall ratings make them outsiders here.
2016-01-23 Charlton Blackburn

Charlton’s crisis continues to deepen, with this fixture offering underachieving Blackburn a chance to climb away from the relegation zone. Both sides have found converting their chances difficult this season but while the visitors have at least made themselves difficult to break down in return, the home defence has been comfortably the worst in the second tier.
2016-01-23 Fulham Hull

Fulham’s ratings suggest that they should be seriously worried about relegation and the visit of Hull – the E Ratings’ favourite team – could push them further into trouble. The Cottagers have been one of three impressively clinical finishers this season but the visitors’ defence will offer a stern examination.
2016-01-23 Leeds Bristol C

Both of these clubs have had frustrating seasons up front, but Leeds’ more streetwise defence could be the difference here. Bristol City have conceded with alarming ease and have been the more wasteful finishers, which gives their hosts the edge.2016-01-23 Middlesbrough Nottm Forest

Middlesbrough’s incredibly tenacious defence should have plenty to do against trigger-happy Forest and the visitors’ wasteful finishing could boost Boro’s defensive record further. Forest have been no slouches at the back themselves, so there may not be too many goals in this one.2016-01-23 Preston Brentford

Preston have a relatively weak attack sitting in front of a strong defence while their visitors are the opposite, which makes for an interesting match-up here. The hosts’ overall performances, coupled with home advantage, make them favourites, but much depends on whether they can contain the Brentford attack.2016-01-23 QPR Wolves

There really isn’t much between these two sides in terms of their overall performances at either end of the pitch, so the outcome of this match will depend on how well QPR utilise their home advantage. Wolves have allowed more shots at their goal on average, which could see the home side presented with the better opportunities to settle this.2016-01-23 Reading Sheff Wed

Reading have dominated matches in shot terms this season but they have been among the least effective sides at both ends of the pitch. While their overall performances are sufficient to make them favourites, Sheffield Wednesday’s ruthless finishing could provide an unwelcome lesson in efficiency for the Royals.2016-01-25 Burnley Derby

The Monday game pits two of the division’s most resilient defences against each other. Burnley have been specialists in converting a below-average number of opportunities into a regular flow of goals, but that ability is likely to be thoroughly tested here.