Category Archives: Blog

Pre-season predictions: how did the model do?

Shortly after the regular EFL season had finished I compiled a set of club-by-club graphics which tracked how their league position changed over time compared with my model’s predictions. When doing so I noticed that even the pre-season predictions (made without any knowledge beyond last season’s performances) were surprisingly accurate, so I thought I’d try to work out how good they were. I didn’t

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A quick look at the Premier League relegation battle

I spotted a PA interview with David Moyes yesterday in which he sounded surprisingly – and uncharacteristically – upbeat: David Moyes: "We still think we have got a good chance (of survival) #SAFC https://t.co/eQi0EbOYcU — PA Dugout (@PAdugout) April 25, 2017 This doesn’t chime with how my model sees things. It’s pretty much given up on both Sunderland and Middlesbrough,

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What’s the longest each club has gone without scoring / conceding a league goal this season?

I saw plenty being made of Sunderland’s current barren run after their 3-0 defeat to Manchester United earlier today and realised that I had half-built a way of working out how long each club’s longest goalscoring drought is from the last time something like this happened. I was able to polish it off pretty quickly and run it for all four

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What’s still possible: National League, 3 Apr 2017

With Rotherham’s relegation confirmed this weekend and the season fast running out of matches, I thought it was worth dusting off another post from last year which looked at what was still mathematically possible (no matter how unlikely) in each division. This is a rare situation when the limited data available at National League level isn’t a hindrance to me including

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What’s still possible: Premier League, 2 Apr 2017

With Rotherham’s relegation confirmed yesterday and the season fast running out of matches, I thought it was worth dusting off another post from last year which looked at what was still mathematically possible (no matter how unlikely) in each division. A quick explanation I’ve built a tool which narrows down how far each club can move based on the maximum number

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