Now that the group stage is over, I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the knockouts – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. Knockout stage We now know the identities of the

I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) ahead of the final round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. Knockout stage England, France and Germany are already guaranteed to win

I’ve updated my Euro 2022 probability graphics (explained here) following the first round of group stage matches – basically recalculating each team’s FIFA ranking points and then re-running my model to work out their chances of reaching each stage and which opponents they’re likely to be drawn against. I’ll do so again on Friday once the second round of matches