As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the second round of group games. How the knockout stages could pan out First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Brazil remain the standout favourites, with a final against either France or Portugal looking

The plan As per the plan laid out here, I’ve updated the World Cup probability graphics following the completion of the first round of group games. How the knockout stages could pan out First of all, here are the probabilities look for the latter stages of the tournament. Argentina‘s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia leaves Brazil as the dominant favourites,

The plan During the 2018 World Cup I was messing about with a simple prediction model based on the Elo ratings (which I prefer to the official FIFA ones) and came up with graphics like this and this which people quite liked, so ever since then I’ve rolled them out for every major tournament. For every team there’s an individual