League 1 previews, 23 Jan 2016

Here is the latest batch of preview graphics, covering the weekend’s League 1 matches. These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

2016-01-23 Barnsley Rochdale

Barnsley look to be making steady improvements this season but the visit of Rochdale will provide a stern test of just how much progress they are making. The visitors have looked solid all season and have allowed fewer shots than anyone else, which could mean few opportunities for the Tykes’ modest attack.2016-01-23 Burton Shrewsbury

Burton’s ascent this season has mirrored Shrewsbury’s deterioration, making them strong favourites here. The Brewers’ defence has been especially strong while their attack has occasionally let them down with some wayward finishing, so an organised display from their visitors could potentially frustrate them.2016-01-23 Chesterfield Millwall

It’s not been a great season for Chesterfield and the visit of Millwall could well add further disappointment. The away side bring with them one of the division’s more capable attacks, which could well profit from the number of chances that their hosts tend to allow.
2016-01-23 Crewe Wigan

Crewe continue to look endangered, both in the E Ratings and in the league table itself, and against as strong a side as Wigan home advantage will count for little. The Latics have been strong at the back and what they have lacked in menace up front they have often compensated for with clinical finishing.2016-01-23 Fleetwood Doncaster

Fleetwood – like Doncaster did before their recent renaissance – look better than their league position suggests; having shown improvement at both ends of the pitch and appearing to have enough about them to avoid relegation. Both sides have looked in better shape going forward than defending, which could generate a few goals here.

2016-01-23 Gillingham Peterborough

These two sides have each excelled at a different aspect of attacking this season: Gillingham have been the most clinical finishers in the division by some distance while Peterborough have racked up a ridiculously high number of chances. The latter’s defence has often let them down however, allowing a similarly high number of efforts in return, which could be their undoing against such ruthless hosts.2016-01-23 Oldham Bury

These two sides have taken and faced similar quantities of shots this season but the quality tells a different story. Oldham have struggled to create good chances while Bury have been relatively clinical with theirs and look to be in better overall shape than their relegation-threatened hosts. However both clubs are in free fall at the moment and will be equally desperate for a win here.
2016-01-23 Port Vale Bradford

This match does not scream “goals”, with one of its worst-rated attacks hosting one of its most profligate. Both Port Vale and Bradford have looked much more convincing in defence than further up the pitch, which only reduces the chances of a goal glut here still further. The visitors look the more likely to prevail based on their overall performances.2016-01-23 Scunthorpe Colchester

Scunthorpe will be looking to arrest their slide down the table and the visit of relegation-threatened Colchester provides one of the best opportunities they are likely to get. The Iron have been the division’s most wasteful finishers this season but they are up against it’s leakiest defence by far, so if they can’t score here then urgent work may be needed. Their visitors do not look as bad as their league position suggests though, so should not be underestimated.2016-01-23 Sheff Utd Swindon

It’s interesting to see how close these two sides are in the scatter graphics at the bottom despite their differing fortunes for much of this season. Swindon’s recent surge has closed the gap between them to just six points but their defence remains a concern and could well be exploited by the Blades’ powerful attack.2016-01-23 Southend Coventry

Southend have been overachieving against their E Ratings for some time but despite four winless matches it’s too early to tell if a bubble is bursting. While Coventry have performed strongly at both ends of the pitch they have found wins hard to come by of late and badly need the three points here to remain in the promotion hunt. With both sides proving resilient in defence it could be a frustrating afternoon all round.2016-01-23 Walsall Blackpool

Two of the division’s most resilient defences meet here, with the difference being that Walsall have restricted the quality of their opponents’ chances while Blackpool appear to be relying on pure heroism. The visitors’ own modest efforts up front do not help their chances here, even if their 5-0 stunning of Scunthorpe will have raised some eyebrows.