Seeing as the midweek fixture schedule is fairly modest, I’ve combined the previews for the Football League and National League matches into one post.

These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

1. The current ratings of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
2. A probability forecast for the match;
3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Championship

Brentford may still be outsiders for promotion but their overall performances have been sufficiently more solid than visitors Leeds’ this season to make them favourites here. The Bees’ attack has cooled down since last season but is still one of the division’s more dangerous, while their visitors have struggled to threaten on a consistent basis this season. However the hosts have been vulnerable in defence – even more so than their visitors – so a slip could prove costly.

Despite their disappointing seasons, both of these sides have maintained respectable underlying performances that make this game a tricky one to call. Forest’s “energetically wasteful” attacking style might actually pay off against QPR’s slightly leakier-than-average defence, but overall there really isn’t much between these teams.

League 1

Sheffield United may be one of the division’s better-ranked sides – and Blackpool among its worst – but the Blades put in a dreadful performance at the weekend while their hosts have impressed in recent fixtures. However the combination of the home side’s incredibly permissive defence and their visitors’ potent attack means that this is the sort of match that United should be capable of winning.

Barnsley continue to reap the rewards of their strong underlying improvements: they were rock bottom in late November but have won five of their six league games since then. Bradford’s overall rating remains much healthier but they are going through a rocky patch, with their underwhelming attack the main cause of their disappointing season. It will be interesting to see if the resilient home defence can contain one of the division’s more clinical finishers.

Crewe are putting in some spirited performances but remain deep in relegation trouble. While unlikely to trouble the play-off places as it stands, Bury have looked solid and have converted their chances at an impressive rate. Coupled with home advantage this makes the Shakers heavy favourites to record a home win here.

Despite their poor start, Doncaster have put in some generally solid performances this season and they could be sitting much higher if they’d been able to put more of their chances away. Visitors Port Vale have also endured a disappointing campaign up front, with chance creation a regular struggle, so there might not be too many goals in this one.

They may still be in the promotion race but I’m starting to have real concerns about whether Walsall can last the distance, given that their ratings have dipped significantly in recent weeks. Fleetwood meanwhile are continuing to improve and shouldn’t be written off here, but their slightly wasteful attack could be frustrated by their visitors’ resilient back line.

Burton’s eight-match unbeaten run came to a shock end at home to Shrewsbury at the weekend and will be hoping that their fortunes don’t reverse as abruptly as Peterborough’s have done in recent weeks. This is an intriguing match-up, with the side to have taken the most shots hosting the one to have allowed the fewest, and with the Brewers also the division’s most wasteful finishers it will be interesting to see if the home side’s permissive defence can keep them out.

The outcome of this game could have a big influence on the relegation battle, with Oldham the more in need of a win to claw their way towards safety. Shrewsbury registered a shock win at Burton at the weekend but remain on the fringes of the drop zone and have a similar overall rating to their visitors. The home side have been much better at converting their chances but allowed more efforts at their goal in return, so they are far from clear favourites.

League 2

It’s still too early to tell how much of an impact Leyton Orient’s change of manager will have but, short of active sabotage, they should be considered strong favourites here. The home side’s rating may be on the wane but their attack remains one of the division’s best; while Newport’s front line has also improved it appears to have come at the cost of defensive solidity, so they may struggle to contain their hosts.

Mansfield are seriously out-of-sorts at the moment, with only one win in their last seven league matches despite five of those games being at home. Interestingly all of the Stags’ victories this season have come against sides currently sitting 16th or lower, which doesn’t bode well for their chances here. Morecambe are hardly high-fliers and have a lower overall rating, but have been clinical in front of goal and are in far less worrying form.

National League

Woking have taken the most shots in the division so far this season and they’re visiting the side who have allowed by far the most, so it would be natural to expect plenty of chances for the away side here. Altrincham have also been the most wasteful finishers, but while defending has been their visitors’ weaker suit this term they will need Woking’s back line to be less resilient than usual if they’re to take anything from this game.

This game brings together two sides who are much better at limiting chances than creating them. While Wrexham take plenty of shots, many are hit from long range and therefore do little to increase their menace. The visitors have also found it much more difficult than Braintree to soak up their opponents’ efforts, but given the home side’s relatively anonymous recent showings in front of goal this may not be an issue.

Southport are on an impressive run at the moment, having won six and drawn two of their last eight league matches, but the visit of title chasers Forest Green represents a stern test. The hosts’ attack is fairly quiet – an improving defence has been more integral to their recent good form – so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the away side’s rampaging attack.