Championship previews, 30 Jan 2016

Here are the previews for the few Championship fixtures not to have been rearranged to make way for the FA Cup fourth round this weekend. As you can probably guess, they predominantly feature clubs towards the lower reaches of the table.

These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

2016-01-30 Bristol C Birmingham

Bristol City have actually maintained higher ratings than Birmingham this season despite their visitors having a far better position in the league table, which is a good illustration of what expected goals doesn’t measure very well. City have been wasteful up front and porous at the back, meaning that many of their good performances have ultimately been futile, while Birmingham’s resilience at the back has allowed them to grind out results. Unless the home side’s recent change in manager has a liberating effect, they could be frustrated once more here.

2016-01-30 Huddersfield Cardiff

Another case of a side having marginally higher ratings but a lower league position here, with Huddersfield having put in some strong performances recently. Defence has been the main difference between these two clubs this season, with Cardiff allowed far more shots but proving equally more adept at keeping them out. If the home side can restrict the quality of their opponents’ chances in addition to the quantity, then they have the better chance of prevailing.
2016-01-30 Rotherham Charlton

While this definitely falls into the “relegation six pointer” category, Rotherham are in by far the better shape at the moment. Charlton have gone from bad to worse this season and are the division’s poorest performers at both ends of the pitch, while the Millers would need only a modest improvement to steer themselves away from danger. The home side’s main weakness has been in defence, where they have soaked up fewer shots for each goal conceded than anyone else, so their visitors’ best chance of success could be to go on the offensive.