League 1 previews, 30 Jan 2016

Here are the preview graphics for the weekend’s cup-depleted League 1 fixtures.

These templates smash together compact versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics. I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams ahead of a match using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

2016-01-30 Blackpool Gillingham

Gillingham owe their continued presence at the top end of the division to their ruthless finishing, and it will be interesting to see how Blackpool’s permissive but stubborn defence deals with them. The home side look to be pulling away from the drop zone but thwarting the Gills here would be quite the achievement given that they are putting one of the division’s most open defences up against one of its most dangerous attacks.2016-01-30 Bradford Fleetwood

Bradford are enduring a poor run of form lately, with their wasteful attack undermining the good work being done in defence, and this match won’t be as easy as Fleetwood’s lowly league position suggests. The Cod Army are putting in some increasingly positive performances this season, with both their attack and defence ratings heading in the right direction, although they have recorded a frustrating number of draws due to their own inconsistent finishing.2016-01-30 Coventry Scunthorpe

Both of these clubs’ form could be described as “patchy” lately, which makes this a tricky one to call, although Coventry would appear to be strong favourites. Visitors Scunthorpe started the season fairly well but their progress has long since stalled: they have created far fewer chances than their hosts and their wayward finishing makes the Sky Blues’ own slightly wasteful execution look far less concerning. Coupled with Coventry’s own robust defence, the prospects of an away goal are relatively slim.2016-01-30 Millwall Crewe

Crewe may be the relegation favourites but they aren’t going down without a fight, having scraped draws in each of their last two outings. Millwall will be tough to shackle though, with one of the division’s most potent and clinical attacks, so there doesn’t appear to be much chance of an away triumph here.
2016-01-30 Rochdale Burton

This looks to be another tough away trip for Burton, with Rochdale among the more solid outfits in the play-off race. The home side have allowed almost as few shots as their visitors but have found it much harder to keep the ball out of their net, although the Brewers’ poor finishing may cancel this out.2016-01-30 Swindon Barnsley

For me this is one of the weekend’s most interesting match-ups, as both of these sides are recovering well from a poor start to the season and we could learn a lot about how high each can rise. They have both been clinical up front but vulnerable at the back, so there could well be a few goals here too.
2016-01-30 Wigan Port Vale

Wigan’s strong performances this season make them firm favourites here, although they’ve often relied on clinical finishing to compensate for some relatively average attacking output. Attack has been Port Vale’s weaker suit too, which could see them struggle to find a way through here, but their defence has been tough to break down and may limit the home side’s chances.